Reports

Maintaining Stability in the Gulf: Problems and Prospects
Wilton Park
West Sussex, UNITED KINGDOM: November 6-10, 2000

In this conference, participants explored the political, economic, and social dynamics of recent changes in the Gulf region in an effort to determine which factors will best maintain stability and reduce frictions both within and between the states of that key area. The discussion focused on the major actors of the region: Iran, Iraq, and the Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), as well as Afghanistan and Pakistan.

With respect to Iraq, the current sanctions regime was seen to be unsustainable. Sanctions will most likely be amended to focus on specific areas of concern, while the entry of consumer and humanitarian goods will be permitted in order to improve the lot of the Iraqi population. Cooperation between the GCC states and the West was seen as a continued priority in maintaining their own security, while cooperation with Iraq and Iran - as well as among themselves - were seen as less likely options for the GCC states.

The high level of defense spending was identified as an area of great concern. Participants pointed to uncertainties about Iraq and Iran and a perceived need to reinforce Western security commitments as reasons for this spending. However, they argued that reductions in defense spending could permit governments to spend more to address social and other issues. Such reductions could be achieved through greater cooperation between states and the development of genuine local defense strategies, among other steps.

In the economic realm, a high priority was placed on reforming and modernizing the region’s economies. Participants recommended moderation in states’ regional foreign policies to permit greater cooperation between regional energy producers and to encourage foreign direct investment. Economic restructuring and diversification, as well as encouraging greater investment by local populations in their own economies, were also seen as essential. Such reforms, however, would require far-reaching political changes for which there was much skepticism regarding the prospects of such changes occurring with any rapidity.

The role of Islam and democracy in the region was discussed at length, as participants examined the tension between young, cosmopolitan populations and the more conservative leaderships. As democracy adapts to local culture and sensibilities, "religious nationalism" will develop as the prominent ideology of the region’s states, a process that is much more advanced in Iran than in the GCC states.

In meeting the needs of providing employment and income to defuse tensions and underpin stability, participants emphasized the need for improvements in education. Education should focus on establishing clear aims, reducing the amount of rote learning and promoting critical thinking and evaluation. These and other reforms were seen to be essential as the region is subjected to the full impact of the global information revolution and government-controlled media loses its hold on populations.

Meanwhile, local leaders should consider how best to develop a modern civil society based on regional traditions. All of the participants agreed that beginning efforts soon to adjust to these changing circumstances, while maintaining lines of communication between the rulers and the ruled, will be essential for maintaining stability.

For additional information, contact Mrs Heather Ingrey, Conference Administrator, Wilton Park Conferences, Wiston House, Steyning, West Sussex, BN44 2DZ, UNITED KINGDOM; phone (44-1903)817764; fax (44-1903)814217; e-mail Heather.Ingrey@wiltonpark.org.uk; website http://www.wiltonpark.org.uk.

Bulletin of Regional Cooperation in the Middle East Spring 2001
Copyright 2004 Search for Common Ground