Publications

This section highlights books, monographs and articles relating to regional cooperation in the Middle East. Publishers and authors are encouraged to submit material for review.

Mohamed Abu-Nimer
Dialogue, Conflict Resolution and Change: Arab-Jewish Encounters in Israel
(Albany, New York: State University of New York Press, 1999), 199 pages, US$17.95

In this book, Mohamed Abu-Nimer, an Assistant Professor in the International Peace and Conflict Resolution Program at American University, has made an important contribution to the field of conflict resolution and the study of Arab-Israeli/Jewish-Israeli relations in Israel. He critically examines various dialogue projects within Israel by first defining terms in conflict resolution and then applying the theory of practice to this test case.

The first part of the book gives an analysis of approaches to conflict resolution, examining alternatives to the traditional "contact hypothesis." Abu-Nimer utilizes interdisciplinary theories from the fields of education, inter-group relations, and conflict resolution and provides an explanation of the theories behind intervention models and processes.

This sets the stage for Abu-Nimer’s detailed description of a number of Jewish-Israeli /Arab-Israeli dialogue projects taking place in Israel. He presents both practitioner and participant perceptions of how to gauge success. Abu-Nimer clarifies the role of these coexistence processes within Israeli society and challenges practitioners to question whether this method of practice catalyzes social change or serves as a mechanism for maintaining the status quo in minority/majority relations.

This review is done within an historical and political context. Abu-Nimer investigates the role of these encounters during times of transition such as the Intifada, the Gulf War, and the Oslo peace process. He explores intervention design and the specific process of methods for coexistence work, providing both critical analysis and recommendations for designing and developing dialogue processes.

This volume is a useful tool for intervention practition-ers not only in the Arab-Israeli context, but also in any conflict that includes a component of minority/majority relations and interethnic communication. (TL)

Ian Anthony and Peter Jones
International Arms Transfers and the Middle East (The Emirates Occasional Papers #21)
(Abu Dhabi, UAE: The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 1998), 39 pages, US$5.50 (cloth)

In this brief volume, Ian Anthony, head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Project on Conventional Arms Transfer Controls in Europe, and Peter Jones of the SIPRI Middle East Security and Arms Control Project explore how changes in the global conventional arms trade will impact the Middle East.

The authors discuss how the end of competition between the US and the Soviet Union after the Cold War has changed the international arms trade environment. The US is now the dominant global supplier of arms followed by Russia (whose exports have been cut due to political developments since 1989 and embargoes placed on some of its clients) and a number of European nations. Moreover, these major suppliers are now seeking more international sales as a result of domestic defense budget cuts.

Because of its high strategic and political importance and the developments outlined above, the Middle East remains an important market for conventional arms. Looking ahead, the authors make a number of forecasts for the region. They believe that Israel will develop its own cutting-edge technology with continued US aid while Saudi Arabia and Jordan will be limited by domestic conditions in their development of military technology. Iraq and Libya are restricted in modernizing their military forces by the arms embargoes imposed on them, and Iran and Syria face US and European pressure against a build-up of conventional arms. In addition, Egypt will have continued access to conventional arms, but will lose some of its military aid from the US.

The authors argue that, of all the arms suppliers to the Middle East, the US will remain the largest and technologically most developed for the foreseeable future. Within the region, Israel will continue to predominate in terms of military technology and a large gap between Israeli military strength and that of other Middle Eastern nations is likely to result. Those states that reject Israel’s existence and the dominant American role in the region will be isolated further in their technology development and forced to look for non-conventional ways to equalize the technological – and political – imbalance.

Although brief, this publication provides a good general overview of how trends in international arms sales impact the Middle East. (SRdB)

Available from ECSSR by fax at (971-2)769-944 or e-mail at pubdis@ecssr.ac.ae.

Musa S. Braizat
The Jordanian-Palestinian Relationship
(London: British Academic Press, 1998), 256 pages, US$59.50 (cloth)

Musa Braizat offers a critical analysis of the idealized confederate relationship between Jordan and the Palestinians. Defining confederalism as a "contractual union of states," the author illustrates how the regional political environment in the Middle East has prevented confederalism’s effectiveness, not only for the Jordanians and Palestinians, but also for the Arab world as a whole.

The author, Jordan’s current Ambassador to Turkey, focuses on how inter-Arab and imperial political maneuverings have compromised the integrity of the confederate ideal among Jordanians and Palestinians. Viewing the entire Arab state system as a confederate entity, Braizat evaluates it as having spawned complex webs of alliances and rivalries, which have undermined the logic of closer political ties among Jordanians and Palestinians. The two peoples have consistently been enmeshed in the turbulence of Middle East politics, often being manipulated against each other by their more powerful neighbors such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Braizat analyzes in depth how this jockeying for power and influence has manifested itself in the Arab League. According to the author, the legacy of British and French influence in the region has also shaped the Jordanian political outlook by assisting, but mostly frustrating, Hashemite calls for complete Arab unity.

Aided by the historical Palestinian fragmentation on specific political purpose and desired courses of actions, such outside penetration of the Jordanian and Palestinian political worlds has given the Arab confederate framework its overall negative impact. The political composition of Jordan itself has also been relevant for some, states Braizat. Its strong Palestinian identity has blurred the line between the two entities such that merely distinguishing between the two has been brought into question.

The author concludes that Jordanians and Palestinians should alter the prevailing confederate Arab system by securing a "strategic understanding," leading, in turn, to a federal arrangement. He believes that not only are the two peoples sufficiently inter-twined with each other to warrant federalism – they share a common language, culture and history – but they also both need the benefits that federalism could offer them. (DK)

Bahgat Korany, Rex Brynen and Paul Noble, editors
Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Arab World, Volume 2, Comparative Experiences
(Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), 301 pages, US$55.00 (cloth), US$22.00 (paper)

This edited volume aims to chart the current state of Arab political liberalization and democratization by focusing on the experiences of ten nations. In so doing, the contributors identify some of the emerging trends in Arab political development.

One trend is the Arab polity’s increasing liberalization rather than democratization. Utilizing the editors’ definition of liberalization as the institutionalization of civil and political freedoms, and democratization as the extent of citizen participation combined with the accountability of governing elites, the writers exhibit the relative disconnect between the two political phenomena in the Arab world. Since 1989, for example, the regime of Jordan’s King Hussein has adopted the rhetoric of liberalization and has institutionalized its concern by establishing the Center for Freedom Democracy and Human Rights Studies. Yet the monarchy has maintained its authority by controlling the pace and scope of liberalization.

Morocco presents a similar scenario as King Hassan II’s regime continues to create and distribute, in a top-down fashion, various bits of political patronage leading to a controlled increase in nominal political pluralism rather than actual democratization. The editors identify both states as having advanced only with procedural democracy due to a strong locus of de jure and de facto monarchical power.

The role of international determinants is another aspect of Arab liberalization and democratization identified by the writers. External economic shocks often play an important part in regime alteration and were particularly noticeable with the collapse of energy prices in the 1980s, which led to a decrease in state largess to citizens. With their material needs less satisfied by the state, citizen demands for more accountable political authority ensued, as was the case in Algeria.

The outcome of war can be a determinant in regime opening as well. In Egypt’s experience, the psychological victory of the 1973 October War against Israel gave President Anwar Sadat the necessary political leverage to formalize multi-partyism in 1976.

While the Arab political world has witnessed some important political changes – along with widespread discourse on democracy – in recent years, the editors conclude that "little of contemporary Arab politics can be described as fully democratic." More specifically, they claim that political pluralism (i.e., multi-partyism) has developed ahead of any democratization. In the long-term, however, they are optimistic that this pluralism may lead to democracy as opposed to merely a political end in itself. (DK)

Aharon Klieman Constructive Ambiguity in Middle East Peace-Making
(Tel Aviv: The Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research, 1999), 156 pages, US$15.00 (paper)

In this volume, Aharon Klieman challenges the conventional "wisdom" of international negotiation which says that vagueness has a constructive and positive role to play in peace-making. While Klieman believes that peace processes can benefit from ambiguity if it is used sparingly and appropriately, he argues that its misuse and abuse have created obstacles to peace in the Middle East.

Klieman believes that, while proponents of "Constructive Ambiguity" tout its power to bring parties to the table and engage them in the process of peace-making, the phrase has become a euphemism for glossing over issues and shying away from the difficult process of finding common ground. Too often, he says, substantive progress is sacrificed for the appearance of agreement and the avoidance of confrontation. A relatively new development in international diplomacy, the tendency to rely on ambiguity in negotiation (and indeed herald its use as "constructive") has been extremely destructive to the process of forging a lasting settlement in the Middle East.

Klieman contrasts situations in which a limited measure of ambiguity has been useful to the Middle East peace process with situations in which it has served only to stall and derail it. In particular he focuses on how the vague language of written agreements on issues such as "safe passage" and "territorial compromise", brings about handshakes and the appearance of progress, without bringing about any substantive change in the parties’ positions or attitudes.

Klieman claims that Camp David established a model for (mis)using ambiguity in the Middle East peace process, as the Camp David Accords were rife with generalizations and fuzziness. The legacy that has flowed from this model, he says, has been a strong belief in the power of opaqueness to fuel the peace process. While Klieman willingly acknowledges that ambiguity can play an important role in bringing parties to the table and initiating dialogue, he is adamant that it is detrimental in the later stages of negotiations. He demonstrates that both the Oslo Accords and the Wye River Agreement obfuscate rather than elucidate the substantive issues, perpetuating the "continuing absence of what Thomas Schelling earlier labeled ‘coordination of expectations.’"

Ultimately, Klieman says, "the conventional wisdom’s dominant hold must be broken. Premeditated ambiguity may have worked in the past, but not once you enter the realm of Permanent Status…speaking truth to ambiguity presently becomes the first order of Middle East business." (LY)

Neill Lochery
"Israel and Turkey: Deepening Ties and Strategic Implications, 1995-98"
Israel Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 1 (Autumn 1998), pp. 45-62

In this article, Neill Lochery of University College, London, examines the development of stronger relations between Israel and Turkey since 1995, primarily from the Israeli perspective. These ties have expanded in the economic realm, in the form of a free trade agreement and increased Israeli tourism to Turkey, and in the political realm, in the form of high level visits. The most significant is the military realm. Military ties now include joint maneuvers, increased intelligence cooperation, joint research and production, and sale of Israeli equipment to Turkey.

Lochery views the burgeoning relationship as a natural and obvious one. Ties began in the 1960s when the two countries’ armed forces developed joint military plans (never implemented), which remained secret for fear of Arab hostility. Lochery argues that the Declaration of Principles in 1993 allowed the relationship to become overt, as the Oslo process lent regional legitimacy to the contacts between Israel and Turkey, and therefore sped up closer relations.

The main potential gains of this relationship for Israel include a market for Israeli military hardware and technology, access to Central Asian markets, use of Turkish airspace for training, and a way to split the Syrian army on two fronts. For Turkey, the relationship offers a (relatively) affordable way to modernize its military, intelligence cooperation, and tourism – with more than 250,000 Israelis visiting Turkey annually. The risks for Israel include building ties to a country with chronic political instability and latent anti-Israeli forces, and the potential negative impact on Israeli-Arab ties and pressure on Turkey. For its part, Turkey is concerned with Arab objections, which could take the form of economic sanctions.

Among the regional effects of Israeli-Turkish ties has been a partial rapprochement between Iraq and Syria, and deepening links between Syria and Iran, as counterfoils to the Israeli-Turkish alliance. Another has been the reactivated role of Russia in the region, to counterbalance what it perceives as the Turkey-Israel-US axis.

Lochery concludes by assessing the short and long-term importance of the alliance for Israel. He believes it has succeeded in fulfilling Israel’s main short-term interest: finding markets for Israeli military products. Israel’s long-term interests, however, are in the strategic and political realm, in Lochery’s view. Although Israel needs a regional ally and Turkey is the obvious choice, Lochery questions whether it is the ideal partner. Some Israelis are wary of pursuing policies, such as the alliance with Turkey, that increase tensions with Syria and jeopardize a future peace deal. Also, Lochery sees Turkey’s chronic political instability as a negative factor that could create a situation reminiscent of Israel’s relationship with Iran, which changed dramatically overnight with very negative implications. (AH)