Editorial

MAY 1999

In the annals of modern Middle Eastern history, May 1999 may be seen as a remarkable turning point in regional relations. Although fears ran high that the peace process would end on May 4th or May 17th, the outcome on both dates has instead created a surprisingly constructive atmosphere for dialogue and peace building between Palestinians and Israelis, and perhaps others. In the same month, relations between Iran and its Arab neighbors in the Gulf took on a much more positive tone. This may lead to cooperation in that troubled area as well.

The symbolic importance of May 4th to Palestinians was not lost on even the most casual observers of the region, yet it passed with relative tranquility after the US indicated a more favorable stance on the creation of a Palestinian state if the decision to do so was postponed by the Palestinian Authority (PA). President Clinton’s letter of April 26 to PA Chairman Yasser Arafat, in which he gives support to "the aspirations of the Palestinian people to determine their own future on their own land," makes the possibility of a final settlement and a Palestinian state more likely than at any other time. The PA’s decision to engage in the process of writing a constitution while postponing a formal declaration lends additional evidence to the possibility of such an outcome.

Israel’s elections provided a turbulent backdrop to the diplomatic man-euverings related to postponing Palestinian statehood. The choice of Ehud Barak over Binyamin Netanyahu for Prime Minister, and the margin of Barak’s victory, may signal a major change not only in Israel’s foreign policy but also in the Israeli electorate. Given the choice between two visions of the future – one built on fear and confrontation, the other on compromise and negotiation – Israelis chose the latter. While some doubt whether Barak differs substantially from his predecessor, he is generally seen as following in the tradition of Yitzhak Rabin: tough on security but intent on peace. He has already made clear, for example, his interest in withdrawing from southern Lebanon, reinvigorating the peace process – particularly the long-dormant Syrian-Israeli track, and addressing final status issues. In addition, many believe that he will soon authorize full implementation of the Wye River agreement.

Encouraging developments have recently occurred in the Gulf as well. While Iran’s relations with its Arab neighbors remain uneasy, President Khatemi’s visit to Saudi Arabia in May was an unmistakable overture to move beyond the hostilities that developed between the two countries over the past two decades. The possibility of building on this visit over the long term is now a real one despite the many obstacles that remain.

Taken together, these events appear, at first blush, to bode well for peace-building efforts in the region during the next several months and provide renewed hope that those determined to live in peace can prevail.